📉 Trade & Tariffs
- A preliminary trade truce was reached between the U.S. and China: China will supply rare-earth minerals and magnets to the U.S., while the U.S. will ease some student exchange restrictions and maintain existing tariffs—pending formal sign‑off by Presidents Trump and Xi wsj.com+7theguardian.com+7wsj.com+7.
- Despite this breakthrough, major tariff duties remain in place, and the global economic outlook has been downgraded due to policy uncertainty and trade disruptions .
📊 Growth Outlook
- The World Bank slashed the 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%, citing trade tensions, especially U.S. tariffs. U.S. GDP is now expected to grow just 1.4%, about half the pace of 2024 bnnbloomberg.ca+2reuters.com+2apnews.com+2.
- The OECD echoed this outlook, cutting U.S. GDP forecasts to 1.6% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026, and warning inflation could reach nearly 4% by year’s end due to tariffs timesofindia.indiatimes.com+4foxbusiness.com+4bnnbloomberg.ca+4.
🛒 Inflation & Prices
- May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% monthly and 2.4% year-over-year—slightly above April due to rising housing/natural gas costs, despite softer energy prices bls.gov.
- Core inflation (excluding food and energy) increased 0.1% in May, bringing the annual rate to 2.8–2.9%, partly driven by tariffs now filtering through consumer goods .
- The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at around 4.25–4.5%, keeping an eye on inflation and potential unemployment rise wsj.com+2reuters.com+2washingtonpost.com+2.
🏦 Labor & Markets
- The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with around 139,000 jobs added in May—even as consumer spending slows wsj.com+2businessinsider.com+2washingtonpost.com+2.
- U.S. stock futures are drifting lower amid economic uncertainty, though the trade truce news helped dampen losses investopedia.com+1wsj.com+1.
🔎 Takeaway Summary
| Theme | Insight |
|---|---|
| Trade | Early progress, but major tariffs remain, prolonging uncertainty |
| Growth | Slower U.S. expansion (~1.5%) and global growth (2.3%), the weakest outside recessions since 2008 |
| Inflation | At ~2.4%; tariffs are gradually pushing prices higher |
| Policy | Fed likely to hold rates steady through summer |
| Labor | Jobs remain steady, but consumer caution is rising |
If you’d like a deeper dive into any of these topics—like how tariffs affect small businesses, or Fed expectations—just let me know!